Deja Too

Posted on May 15, 2012 by austinp

As we said in here a couple of weeks ago: after three solid years of posting literally thousands of inserts with several thousand collective chart images from every market condition imagineable, there really isn’t anything new under the sun to share.

This week’s current emini price action has simply been more of the same in 2012: hours of sideways range consolidation, mere minutes of algo-driven directional price movement.

The game we call our profession is all about positioning trades inside of said congestion at key breaking points, and holding into the brief blips of program-surge moves for profit. That’s  pretty much the gist of things. No rocket science involved. Simply navigate the chop and hold stops into a profitable end result. Or not.

When the two-day range is less than 10 index points with a final-hour boycott of bids that covers more than 10 index points in mere minutes, conditions are more challenging than deliberate trend or swing days where price oscillates up and down. Whether you made money, lost money or kept your money on the sideline was more about ideal timing than luck or great skill involved.

Tomorrow is the last day before expiry sessions, along with CL rollover process thru Thursday and Friday as well. Just for fun we’ll produce a youtube video of Quick$trike ES trading. Win, lose or draw… it’ll go online when I’m done. This time I’ll work the full session from bell to bell, because Thursday session is a day off from work and scheduled for outdoors play.

Not much more to relate than that. Same story as usual, different day – month – year. See the patterns, trade the patterns. Our job description is literally simple as that :)

Trade To Win
Austin

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Patterned Response

Posted on May 13, 2012 by austinp

From: V b@mastermarkets.net
To: Austin Passamonte austinp@coiledmarkets.com
Sent: Friday, May 11, 2012 7:09 PM
Subject: Some CL Trades

I’ve went over the core training and loved it. The simplicity of it all was amazing. The patterns are there time and time again. Another beauty of it is if you dont see a setup in motion you dont have to trade. I used to sit at the screen on my days off from my job and feel that if something didnt come across my path by 1130am that I had to do “something”. Yea well all I did was do something stupid and gave some healthy donations to the markets. Not anymore.

Anyway I could tell you tons of stories but I did mark up 2 key trades I thought I saw on the CL today and I wanted to make sure I had it correct. Thanks for your extra set of eyes with these and for the training tools your provided. [V]

**

“V”… for someone brand new to the CM Team, you sure have an instant grasp of our concept :)

In a nutshell, CM Patterns are nothing more than key, pivotal S/R zones of price action that supercede and trump all else: volume studies, market profile, market breadth indicators, etc are a very distant second when it comes to pure simplicity and deadly effectiveness in reading price.

After wedge-chopping inside yet another micro-range on Thursday, the ES made a rapid ascent to your CM RoadMap price magnets and rolled right over to return from whence it came. Textbook structured price action, it was this time around.

CM Pattern buy signals in ES on Friday…

… followed by CM Pattern sell signals to end the day.

Business as usual when CM EagleTeam members gather to prey on the hapless masses who were on the wrong side(s) of deliberate price action that “trended” both ways.

Trade To Win
Austin

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That’s Not Volatility

Posted on May 10, 2012 by austinp

One of my all-time favorite movie lines was the famous “Crocodile Dundee” scene where Paul Hogan’s character is confronted with some youths who pull a knife and weakly attempt to rob him. He responds with, “that’s not a knife” and proceeds to pull his own which was way bigger than theirs.

So goes the recent media hype about high levels of market volatility of late. As the chart above depicts: “that’s not volatility… that is algo noise.”

From 11:30am thru 4:15 et yesterday, the ES remained within a sideways boxed, 8pt total range. Five hours, eight points. That’s not volatility. That is merely heightened chop.

Historically when markets go from complete doldrums to large-range swings and sustained trend moves, it is signaled by a sudden increase in sideways buzz. Yes the overall pace of price action has quickened this week apart from midday lulls, but price doesn’t go anywhere. Overall the ES stretched 20 points from low to high, but that was one ragged – jagged trip spent getting there. In the end, it closed within a stone’s throw of the open.

Increased sideways noise. Usually signals the start of a directional trend move and/or real volatility with expanded ranges waaaay bigger than recent, ahead.

So heads up on that :)

Trade To Win
Austin

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Vanilla Bean

Posted on May 8, 2012 by austinp

Every great dream begins with a dreamer. Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world
[Harriet Tubman, 1820-1913]

Today’s ES session went down early like a lead balloon and up late like a wind-blown feather. The remaining four hours in between from 11am thru 3pm were the usual lifeless consolidation seen most days as of late.

It is encouraging to see a session where price action actually went somewhere and did something one could consider “normal” by historical regard. A steady diet of these would be most welcome indeed :)

For most of my trading career I have preferred constant-bar type charts such as tick-based or volume-based bars. They all work in the same manner as any chart “works” or not. I have always said there is no singular perfect or superior chart above all others. Your choice of chart to use is nothing more than a personal choice of compromise between speed of bars formed and how exactly they are formed.

A big part of our EagleTeam training is simplicity. The more complexity we deal with as traders, the more apt we are to inject uncertainty and confusion. One challenge with using tick or volume based bars on a chart is the fact that chart formations and price action varies slightly to significantly between different chart providers. How one chart service receives and prints its chart will differ from another chart service provider.

With that in mind, there are many good reasons and no reasons not to use a plain, vanillat one-minute chart for trading ES or pretty much any other futures symbol per our CM Patterns approach.

Today there were six (6) basic, core CM Pattern formation sequences on the 24-hour one-minute chart for ES futures… which will be the focus of our sessions’ review in the Team site Wednesday night.

Three of them were before the 9:30am et open of pit-session trading and three were past the opening bell. One buy signal was an immediate stop-out while the other five trade signals all performed admirably.

Four of you CM Pattern setups came before noon in the drop and two in the afternoon off session lows. You would naturally expect that kind of price-action behavior inside of a normal range session. The good news is, sideways congested sessions do not “chop” a time bar chart to a great degree. One minute and even two minute charts work very well in all possible market conditions.

I guess it’s human nature to desire multiple flavors and complex recipes in the constat quest for improvement. But sometimes, it is pretty tough to beat your homemade vanilla bean :)

Trade To Win
Austin

 

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Dual-Edge $word

Posted on May 7, 2012 by austinp

5/06/2012: Dual-Edge $word video here

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May Day$

Posted on May 5, 2012 by austinp

The surest way not to fail is to determine to succeed
[Richard Brinsley Sheridan, 1751-1816]

***

From: gm g@hughes.net
To: austinp@coiledmarkets.com
Sent: Saturday, May 5, 2012 12:31 PM
Subject: Re: CoiledMarkets.com Home-Study Course + Live Room Month

Hey Austin

The vids are great , your style of presentation has an easy flow of well organized information on an unsurpassed trade method . My trades thank you, my account thanks you , and my brain thanks you !!

Learning the basics [G]

**

From: TS <ts@verizon.net
To: Austin Passamonte austinp@coiledmarkets.com
Sent: Friday, May 4, 2012 3:12 PM
Subject: outstanding!

Austin, just wanted to say that my first week in your program has been simply outstanding! Over the past eight years I have spent upwards of $40,000 on education with nothing that even comes near comparison to you. The mix of technical chart reading, description of traders mindset and emotions and your very clear instruction thru it all is unmatched.

It was a pleasure to watch you operate in the live room where price did precisely what you predicted it would. Words cannot express how impressed I am, so let me just say thank you! Regards [TS]

**

From: A <xyz@metapress.com
To: Austin Passamonte austinp@coiledmarkets.com
Sent: Friday, May 4, 2012 1:44 PM
Subject: Take 5

hi Austin

I’m really digging the idea of your Take5 program in ES. Exactly what you explained in training last night and before is just what goes on in my mind. It’s as if you are inside my very thoughts <lol> which proves to me you’ve been there before.

Just letting you know that all of the time and effort you have spent and will spend on your program has not been in vain.. it is top-notch and unparalleled in my experiences with many others. [A]

===

From: G h@gmail.com
To: austinp@coiledmarkets.com
Sent: Monday, April 2, 2012 6:59 PM
Subject: Eagleteam & Information request

Hi Austin,

I’ve followed your blog for a couple of years now. I appreciate the content, trade similar products, and am interested in becoming a lifetime member and part of the Eagleteam. I do have one request that I hope you can understand. Can you please provide Dorman statements (6 months to date) for the smaller account you trade in the videos? For me, this would validate everything you offer. I clear with Dorman also and am familiar with their statements.

I hope you receive this as a genuine request. If you can provide those statements I give my word you have a new lifetime member. Please feel free to contact me at the number below if you would like to discuss any of this before sending the information. Thank you.

Respectfully, [GH] 

“GH” posed a similar question to which I’ve answered thru the years many times before.

Among other things, my past several months (and more) include trading CL, ES, TF, 6E and spot FX pairs. Some of those were overnight swing trades, too. So whatever I might have to share from the past encompasses all that… which is of less than zero relevance to pure intraday traders or pure lone-symbol traders.

The very reason this blog even exists in the first place, the reason I posted literally hundreds of time-stamped live room trade posts for three years now and counting, that I ever took time to make even one let alone 50+ live-trading videos (to date) on YouTube were to demonstrate trade results documented.

Other than that, this blog and its youtube videos extension serves absolutely no purpose at all. If someone regularly follows this body of work, what are they doing in here besides validating for themselves that what we say, we actually do?

In addition, it’s been a long time since I even harbored second thoughts about trading any symbol all day, straight thru taking every confirmed entry signal. Chances are I’ll never be in that mode again, having matured and evolved as a trader away from that type of effort.

Good news is, part of our CM EagleTeam training program includes my own personal execution of the ES “Take-Five” trades management choice. Each day that I’m at work in the markets, my primary objective is to book +5 points ES any way possible in the fewest trades possible for a successful daily mission completed. This initial week went pretty much according to all others… solid win rate (one losing sequence overall) and net profitable using -1/+2.5 risk to reward ratios.

That is my own personal preference for trades => accounts management. Each day’s normal session offers one to three or four price swings, signaled by CM Patterns trade entry signals that cover more than +4pts ES from entry signaled. If we know that is true from a statistical standpoint of pure market action, we can therefore opt to consider executing any one of those sequences profitably as a successful daily trading effort.

Thru the month of April 2012 there were maybe three of four sessions at most where I simply could not make it to +4pts or greater ES locked in, booked and banked inside the account at some point or other intraday. Other than those micro-range, comatose volume sessions it is pretty simple to hit that self-styled daily profit objective.

The benefit I like most of the Take-Five accounts management program is minimum time spent working, which leaves maximum time left to enjoy life itself. “Don’t Miss Your Life” is a phrase to keep in the forefront of EVERY trader’s mind :)

**

Week one of this personal-choice, “Take-Five” trades management mode resulted in +18.5 index points thru the first four sessions in May. That equates to more than +$2,400 trading three (3) ES contracts per core position. All of this week’s ES trades are visible in charts posted prior for posterity sake. If I recall correctly, there was one (1) ES trade stopped out for loss and all others exited at entry scratched or some degree of net-profit results.

As noted in my initial reply to “GH” back when, that collective work officially kicks in the first of two escalators in tuition fees. On Monday May 7th at 8:00am et our CM EagleTeam program will change to $2,497 lifetime membership enrollment.

The very moment this account exceeds $10,000 in overall profit, our CM EagleTeam program will change to $4,997 lifetime membership enrollment.

We’ll continue to increase our program’s effectiveness in every manner possible with an equal increase in tuition that reflects greater efforts involved. Those who have waited to see “results” are able to see the beginning of that, and have my blessing to wait even longer for further “results” to follow. By the same token, the terms of our program will evolve accordingly in fairness to all involved, myself included :)

Trade To Win
Austin

 

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Eagles Alike

Posted on May 4, 2012 by austinp

It’s nice to see that the month of May brings a return of normalcy to all financial markets. Gone for now are all those dead, no-range, choppy, comatose sesssions as endured thru April. Here again are normal, pedestrian, run-of-mill session ranges and price oscillations.

The ES (for example) offered three (3) different price swings of +5 points or greater beyond each CM Patterns trade signal sequences. That gives savvy traders at least three tries to amass +5pts any way possible and opt to call it a day if they wish. I can tell you from personal experience how nice it is to get your chores done early, finish work early and get on with living your life in fun-filled fashion far away from the office and charts :)

Crude oil futures likewise traded like a dream. When the CL is good it’s great, and they don’t get much better than this session was. No fewer than three (3) textbook CM Patterns sell sequences fired off this morning inside the -200 cent / $2,000 per CL contract trend lower.

I cannot imagine any CL traders on earth having trouble making big-bank for themselves today. Seldom is there anything resembling free money in this profession… but that right there above is near to descript as one will ever witness.

If by chance there are any CL traders out there who failed to position themselves squarely in front of any one of those three uber-simple sell sequences, I respectfully suggest you aren’t yet properly equipped to run with the big dogs over there.

Business as usual in another week of normal, everyday, mundane price movement. When tapes go up we’re long, when down we’re short and after that I’m done until next day comes. As noted too many times before, anyone who cares is welcome to trade all day, all day & night or whatever their heart desires. CM Patterns are there for anyone to read, react to and act upon accordingly. When the sun shines, it shines upon all eagles alike!

Have A Great Weekend :)
Austin

 

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Early May Day

Posted on May 4, 2012 by austinp

06:54:04 {austinp1} Great Morning!

06:55:41 {austinp1} currently short in that zone [1387.25] , most likely my lone trade attempt ahead of pending non-farm release

07:50:52 {austinp1} back…

07:51:02 {austinp1} trailing stop to entry

07:52:22 {austinp1} free trade working… no further trades ahead of news for me

07:52:50 {austinp1} and everyone who cared to follow suit, had ample opportunity to enter same as or way better than me :)

07:53:14 {austinp1} just working around key S/R zones following a squeeze

07:53:25 {austinp1} pattern – squeeze / squeeze – pattern

07:53:34 {austinp1} I heard that repeated somewhere before

08:09:12 {austinp1} stop 88.25

08:16:36 {austinp1} price is likely to whipsaw around as stop orders get probed for

08:16:39 {austinp1} mine included

08:16:53 {EA} oh boy Mr. CL…

08:18:04 {austinp1} yeah, good luck with that into the news

08:18:20 {EA} no way I am touching it

08:18:35 {EA} but at least it is juiced

08:18:44 {austinp1} this report is often untradable

08:18:50 {austinp1} I took one shot, that’s it

08:18:57 {EA} yep

08:22:01 {austinp1} if price whips lower at any time prior to release, I’ll trail to entry and hold until news reaction

08:22:19 {austinp1} if stopped out for -1pt before, no further interest in working ahead of the news

08:22:27 {austinp1} then business as usual to follow

08:22:49 {austinp1} exactly as discussed last night in team training

08:30:14 {austinp1} had no chance to exit in the reaction whip

08:30:15 {kd} I just got spiked out for +6pts

08:30:35 {kd} And done for the day.

08:30:42 {austinp1} stop set to +5.25 points

08:30:47 {austinp1} out +5pts

08:30:56 {austinp1} that’s a wrap for me… done for the day :)

08:31:31 {austinp1} decent start to the new month

08:32:08 {austinp1} Tue +5pts / Wed +4.5pts / Thu +4pts / Fri +5pts

08:32:13 {austinp1} I’ll take it

08:32:43 {austinp1} pardon my morning absence… but I am going turkey hunting from 9am until noon

08:32:53 {kd} Enjoy.

08:32:57 {austinp1} will be back to visit with you here from noon into the closing bell

08:33:08 {austinp1} you ain’t rid of me all day… just half the day :)

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As Expected

Posted on May 3, 2012 by austinp

“He who has imagination without learning, has wings and no feet”
[Vince Lombardi, 1913-1970]

09:02:37 {austinp1} Great Morning!

09:02:47 {austinp1} charts up in a minute :)

09:04:48 {austinp1} <<Timed Camera (1.0s) On>>

09:05:31 {austinp1} today is pre non-farm payroll Thursday

09:06:06 {austinp1} go ahead and expect sub-par trading conditions right now… let yourself be pleasantly surprised if price action is any kind of good at all

09:06:29 {austinp1} tomorrow’s “news” will dominate the tv pundits’ conversation today

09:27:42 {austinp1} keep in mind that when price is moving up and down, all charts work

09:27:57 {austinp1} when price is chopping a 5-point zone all day, nothing works

09:28:07 {LC} Laughing out loud ! yy up and down is required

09:28:15 {austinp1} that is true across every method, system and charts known to mankind

09:28:19 {austinp1} zero exceptions :)

09:35:25 {austinp1} shorting confirmed breaks below or above CM Pattern marked

09:35:56 {austinp1} staged 97.50 short

09:37:13 {austinp1} TF doing the usual surge stuff

09:41:05 {austinp1} slap-saw stuff

09:41:14 {austinp1} TF surged below open range

09:41:18 {austinp1} ES still inside

09:41:51 {austinp1} 97.50 > stop 99.50 initial

09:42:24 {austinp1} looking long near the 1400 zone on a break confirmed

09:42:41 {austinp1} hoping for 1389 on a program slam right from here

09:42:47 {austinp1} prepared either way :)

09:56:11 {N} news in 5

09:56:12 {austinp1} whatever price action instructs us to do

09:56:15 {austinp1} no bias :)

10:00:43 {austinp1} par stops

10:01:09 {kd} Flash crash em.

10:01:38 {austinp1} wouldn’t you rather savor this moment instead?

10:01:44 {austinp1} drag it out an hour or two?

10:02:22 {austinp1} who wants to be done trading by 10:05am est, anyways?

10:02:46 {kid} If the trade ends up profitable I guess it doesn’t matter. But, I would prefer a quick resolution.

10:02:53 {austinp1} me too :)

10:03:12 {austinp1} I’d actually have two hours left to finish the day hunting turkeys :)

10:03:21 {austinp1} season ends at noon each day

10:05:52 {T} lets see if we can hit the roadmap

10:08:45 {austinp1} out +4.0 points

10:08:58 {austinp1} price stalled right at +5.0 points precisely

10:09:20 {austinp1} close enough for government work… one & done for me on non-farm Thursday

10:10:29 {kd} I can’t believe that price moved more than 5 points in the first hour.

10:11:22 {austinp1} kd, we’ll take it :)

10:16:40 {austinp1} I was also short CL 103.60 on that pattern sequence we just examined on the live chart… trailed out at 103.09 for +51 cents

10:59:34 {austinp1} today’s CL trade and today’s ES trade I took were both core CM patterns

11:04:01 {h} I say to people that if someone shows you how to swing a golf club does that mean you are ready for the PGA or if I showed you how to drive a race car wher the gas and breaks and steering wheel are does that mean you can race in nascar. Same with trading. You can be shown the technicals but it takes practice and familairity.

11:44:19 {austinp1} as noted earlier, I’m mostly out of office for the duration

11:44:26 {austinp1} it is 80F and sunny outside

11:44:30 {austinp1} need I say more?

11:44:45 {N} Thanks

===

May 1st: +5.00 points ES per single contract
May 2nd: +4.50 points ES per single contract
May 3rd: +4.00 points ES per single contract

Business as usual for the daily ”Take Five” per individual choice trades management approach  :)

Trade To Win
Austin P

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For Life

Posted on May 1, 2012 by austinp

Yesterday’s end-month emini session was as sideways dead as any trader could possibly fathom. From open range zone to CM RoadMap tagged was roughly five points width… which was pretty much the true range for that day.

It also took almost all day to fuzz-chop its way thru that micro-span too. Such no-volatility, comatose market days usually lead to range expansion soon.

Today’s 10am econ -news explosion was much less about the magnitude of said news and more about a full session of dead-chop coiling action the day before. Regardless how good that “news” was… it was not +20 points ES worth.

Fifteen of those twenty points up happened inside of 20 minutes past the news release. The lone 5min bar from 10:00am – 10:05am exceeded the prior day’s entire 6.75 hours of pit session trading, bell to bell. That’s what happens when volume is nil, volatility is dead and the market is overall one big air pocket every day. Price movement is not evenly distributed thru multiple oscillations daily: it is hours of consolidation and minutes of algo-driven spikes or slams.

I cannot aptly say how I’d have fared this morning in trades executed during the programs squeeze, because I was some forty miles away from my screens at the time. May 1st is opening day of spring turkey hunting season here in NY, and it’s almost a religious holiday in my circles of influence.

Up at 3am, in the truck at 4am, out of the truck at 5am, in the field and on location before 5:30am. If someone promised me the ES would stage a 50 point price swing this morning, it wouldn’t affect my schedule one iota. Why would it? Our priorities are what they are :)

In any event, I was back home in time to catch the CM Pattern sell sequence just off session highs as noted above. Watched it long enough to pull stop-loss down to initial entry for a free trade. Laid down on the sofa, turned on CNBC and passed out for nearly two hours. Woke up, noted on the tv ticker that S&P was down several points from when I dozed off. Got up, walked thru the house and into office, trailed stop down to +5 points in favor as price traded +5.50 points to the good and summarily stopped out for another victorious day.

By random chance that +5pt stop got clipped on the last reflex high to price, then soon worked its way another +4pts in favor beyond exit. At times those type of trades will hold the stop and keep working for +6pts, +8pts, +10pts and +20pts out instead.

The daily “Take Five” approach is designed to work roughly ten out of twenty sessions per month, with remaining sessions expected to wash each other out with wins and losses combined. I’m personally content with +20 ES index points per month and keep adding size. I believe it’s realistic to expect +40 points or better at times.

We all know for a fact that most ES traders are net losers who actually make less than 0 points each month. Our style of trading suites them extremely well… considering they have no style of profitable trading at all.

Tonight’s edition of the CM EagleTeam video in review will be online by 9pm est. Thursday evening’s live online workshop will focus on ES trading specifically, whether you choose to trade all day, all day & night, the Take-Five plan or anything in between when it comes to the trades management personal aspect.

Tuition for a lifetime of lessons website access and the month of May 2012 live-room access for $497 is equal to today’s lone trade using two (2) ES contracts. Is that an affordable education for the rest of your trading life?

Trade To Win
Austin

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