Took Inventory

A lesson from yesterday, before we get into today…

“Statistical odds of probability state CL should hit – exceed 69.07 at the CM-RM 233% sometime today. Odds are +/- 90% probable. But that other 10% exists too. Not to mention the fact that how it gets there is unknown… could pull back deep, several times in fact before a final spike thrust fulfills the destiny.”

Look how that scenario that I posted yesterday morning played itself out afterwards. A deep pull back into the open range, bounce from bottom of range support and spike-thrusts upwards to hit ALL of the CM-RoadMap levels including trend-stopper 780%.

I hope it goes without need for me to say that there were clear buy signals all the way up. Hey listen… if you have a trading system that did not have clear buy signals all the way up, you in fact do not have a viable trading system. You have a jumbled mess of nothing.

Years ago, for many of those years in fact I would agonize over missing each & every price move like this. The human greed factor at work. Back in the boom years of day-trading, circa 1999 thru 2007, if you operated a live trading room and did not trade bell-to-bell and missed such a move, count on several monthly subscribers to quit in frustration and disgust. Not all mind you, but some. And the objective of a live room is to keep everyone happy, monthly.

Not only that, your “performance” in a live room was scrutinized and compared to all others, daily. Readers would go around post-market (or immediately post-spike move) and see “how you did” versus others. “Who caught that move?” and “Did anyone catch that move?” Threads would pop up in message boards like mushrooms in the grass following a warm summer rain.

No Reasons Now
I have no real reasons now to self-impose trading pressures on myself. No one to impress, make happy, keep happy, etc. Except for myself. And I’m happy to catch whatever low-hanging fruit there is to pluck on any given day, and cease trading. One of my primary trading objectives is to take as few actual trades as possible. Keeps costs down, avg per-trade profit up. Keeps on from churning accounts and churning emotions in equal fashion.

Now instead of dialing up charts and agonizing over missed = passed price moves for endless hours or days, I shrug with indifference and give it nil further thought.

It’s a moot point these days as live trading rooms are a dead genre’ that no one uses any more. A fact recently learned by a popular retail ES trader who thought going big-time with such a live-room operation would work. It hasn’t. Because there are not enough active, new traders entering this profession right now to create demand.

But even if there was, I myself would have no further interest for these reasons. Trading and especially trades management is a uniquely individual pursuit. There is no such thing as “group-trading” possible. Because we all have different goals and ideas about success. Which is absolutely, perfectly fine 🙂

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todaywas weekly oil inventory report, which means I don’t begin work until 10:32am est, after the release and initial algo-driven gyrations to follow. By then what was left to the upside continuation from yesterday was price reaching CM-RM 780 zone where intraday trends tend to end. Long signal from RM-512 to RM-780 zones delivered +26 ticks within five minutes.

That is not usually what I even consider a full trade move, but considering price has moved up nearly $5 bbl overnight, not feeling too aggressive here today.


Green, green, green… seven out of seven past sessions worked (prior Monday no signals) with two sessions left ahead. I’m idle all thru the July 4th week ahead, zero interest in trading light-volume holiday markets. Be a nice, long 9-day vacation to enjoy.

But for now, two days left to go.

See You Inside
Austin
austinp@coiledmarkets.com

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