A Wider Perspective

It’s been awhile since I traded last, and it’ll be a little while longer. But not much. I have retired from pure intraday trading forever. That much is certain. I will be trading a more relaxed, expansive mode. That much is certain, too 🙂

Once upon a decade ago, FOMC sessions were something you marked on your calendar to arrange life around for trading. The volatility, big range swings and multiple oscillations into the close made for big-profit opportunity.

Present situation is a 7-point (chart above) S&P 500 range all session long, before and after the “news”.

For the past few years I harbored the notion of forming => running a managed accounts commodity fund, based on pure intraday trading. The images above should support the decision I made to abandon that idea forever. Modern-day markets are simply not conducive to ANY market/symbol intraday trading with enough order size for that.

I may very well do the same thing in 2018 or beyond using commodity options contracts and holding positions for days or weeks in duration. Same concept, same approach, different focus on trades executions. With volatility and volume the past few years continuing to spiral down into all-time historical lows, imo it’s time to widen the perspective for trade entry – management – exit parameters accordingly.

CL-Trader

The basic, vanilla CM-Patterns trading approach, 500-volume CL signal chart. You get one – three trade entry sequences per session on average. Much of the time lately there is no intraday range expansion worthy of profit-taking to offset losses on stops. Some days yes, but not all. However, holding each trade until it either stops for loss OR gains +50 to 100+ ticks/cents does commonly happen… the next day after entry, or the second day after same.

Day-trading itself is as dead as market volatility. Trading itself is alive & well… IF you are willing to adapt and change. Holding futures, options or futures spread positions for more than one session IS the opportunity for profit here in modern times. And likely far beyond.

For sure we’ll see brief spurts of higher volatility, but nothing one can base a complete career around. My days of sitting endless hours in a chair staring at dead, go-nowhere tapes are done forever. My days of passively swing trading will continue from where they left off back in year 2002.More on back to the future, later 🙂

See You Inside
Austin

Posted in Trader Talk | Leave a comment